Banco BPM Posts Record Profit of €1.5 Billion, Raises Dividend Guidance and Opens Door to Crédit Agricole
Banco BPM closed the first nine months of 2026 with a record profit of €1.51 billion. The bank raised its dividend guidance and said it is open to a possible deal with Crédit Agricole Italia.
Banco BPM reported its first nine months of 2026 results, beating market expectations. The bank led by chief executive Giuseppe Castagna posted a record profit of €1.51 billion, up 2.6% excluding the effect of the Anima acquisition.
Revenues reached roughly €4.7 billion, driven by a rise in net commissions, which climbed 9.6% to €2.070 billion. The net interest margin fell 1.3% to around €2.3 billion, reflecting a lower interest-rate environment.
Third quarter beats estimates
In the third quarter alone, net profit came in at €452.5 million, up 0.5% year on year but down from the €580.6 million recorded in the second quarter. The decline partly reflected the seasonal pattern of commissions, yet the result still beat analyst estimates of €432 million.
The figure confirms the strength of the bank's business model, which continues to benefit from diversification between commissions and net interest income despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Dividends and shareholder returns
The board decided to raise its 2026 dividend-per-share guidance to "above €1" from the previous indication of "greater than or equal to €1". The implied dividend yield now exceeds 7.5%, one of the highest among European banks.
Banco BPM also confirmed cumulative shareholder returns of about €7 billion for 2024-2027, compared with the more than €6 billion targeted in its industrial plan. Around €4 billion of that will be distributed in 2026-2027, equal to roughly 20% of the bank's current market capitalisation.
The total includes the first buyback programme, whose size will be set after European Central Bank approval. The board also approved an interim dividend for 2026 of around €750 million, or €0.50 per share. The coupon, up from €0.46 in 2025, will go ex-dividend on 23 November.
M&A and Crédit Agricole
Beyond the numbers, the market focused on Castagna's comments about possible mergers and acquisitions. The Monte dei Paschi di Siena shareholder meeting in late October rejected Luigi Lovaglio's defensive plan, which had envisaged exchange offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali. With that plan scrapped, Banco BPM is no longer seen as a potential target of Monte dei Paschi.
Attention instead remains on the relationship with Crédit Agricole, which holds a 29.3% stake in Banco BPM. Castagna clarified that he has received "no proposal" from the French bank, but confirmed openness to a possible deal with Crédit Agricole Italia.
"It is an opportunity we will examine without any problem," the manager said, while adding that the first move would come from the French side. "It is up to them to decide the best way forward, if they decide to proceed," he stressed.
Shareholder protection and the role of Anima
Castagna reiterated that any transaction would have to be "convenient" for Banco BPM shareholders. While Crédit Agricole is an important industrial shareholder, the other 70% of the capital "must be satisfied" with any potential combination.
The chief executive also defended the strategic role of Anima, the asset manager acquired by the group. "Fundamental to our strategic approach in the market," Castagna said, making clear that Banco BPM will do everything possible to keep Anima within the group even if a deal with Crédit Agricole eventually happens.
Distribution agreements with Intesa and Bper
There are also knots tied to the Italian banking system. Castagna said the possible success of Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid for Monte dei Paschi should not put at risk the distribution contract between Anima and Monte dei Paschi, which expires in 2030.
The banker said he is not worried about continuing the relationship with the current network and with the possible new Mps network, although it will have to become clear "where they end up" given the role Bper also plays in Intesa's broader plan. "I am sure we will be able to manage this amicably under the contract with both Intesa Sanpaolo and Bper," he concluded.
Market reaction
Despite the solid results, Banco BPM shares opened lower, hurt by the negative sentiment that weighed on the Milan bourse and global equity markets. The session was marked by heavy selling in technology and chip stocks, which dragged the banking sector down as well.
Investors therefore seemed to greet the figures cautiously, waiting to see whether the bank can sustain profitability in a lower-rate environment and whether any developments emerge on the mergers and acquisitions front.
